Ecommerce predictions 2026 - Agentic commerce, brand control & profitable growth

2024 and 2025 were years of acceleration. Conversational AI entered ecommerce at scale. Social commerce blurred the line between content and checkout. Marketplaces expanded globally, lowering entry barriers and opening new growth opportunities for brands willing to experiment.

But 2026 marks a shift. AI is moving from novelty to infrastructure. Retail media is evolving from a traffic lever into a profit engine. Cross-border growth is no longer about adding markets, but about operating them with precision. And regulation, authenticity, and returns economics are becoming as strategically important as acquisition.

In short, ecommerce is entering its maturity phase. For brands, this means the competitive advantage won’t come from adopting the next new tool. It will come from executing the fundamentals better than anyone else, across marketplaces, regions, and emerging AI-driven discovery environments.

Expansion alone is no longer the strategy. Operational excellence is. As we step into 2026, the winners won’t be the fastest movers. They’ll be the most disciplined operators. Let’s explore what that means.

1. Returns become a margin battleground

In 2026, ecommerce profitability hinges less on acquisition efficiency and more on post-purchase economics. Returns are no longer treated as a customer service function. They are a strategic cost center, and in many categories, the difference between profit and loss.

For some brands, tightening return policies has already become a live test case. In the UK, major fast fashion retailers including ASOS, Boohoo, and PrettyLittleThing recently faced customer backlash after introducing stricter return conditions, shorter return windows, and new fees - moves designed to curb high return rates and protect margins. Many loyal shoppers publicly criticised the changes, highlighting the tension between cost control and customer experience. At the same time, retailers are investing in AI-driven fraud detection tools to reduce abuse in high-risk categories like fashion and electronics.

Return policies are becoming smarter. Instead of blanket “free returns for everything,” brands are segmenting eligibility based on product type, customer behavior, and fraud risk signals. This more measured approach helps protect margins without completely abandoning flexible policies.

For low-value items, selective “keep it” refunds are increasingly cheaper than processing reverse logistics. The math is shifting, and brands are recalibrating accordingly. Returned inventory is also being routed into resale and refurbishment pipelines, turning what was once pure loss into secondary revenue opportunities. Circularity is moving from marketing message to operational necessity.

In general, the cheapest way to reduce returns remains prevention. Fit tools, sizing clarity, structured product attributes, and better product content reduce uncertainty at the source — and that, in turn, lowers reverse logistics costs as well as customer frustration. In 2026, ecommerce returns management becomes as important as conversion rates.

2. Agentic commerce enters product discovery

Conversational commerce in 2025 was about assistance. In 2026, we begin to see the rise of agentic commerce. AI is moving beyond answering questions and into shaping product discovery. Shoppers are using AI tools to compare products, filter options, summarize reviews, and identify best-fit items before ever visiting a marketplace search page.

In fact, our 2026 Marketplace Shopping Behavior Report shows that 58% of shoppers have already used AI tools to research products, and 37% have used an AI assistant instead of a marketplace to start their purchase journey.

Trust, however, remains the gating factor. Only 17% say they would feel comfortable purchasing directly through AI, and 76% want to review or approve the product themselves before committing. The pattern is clear: AI increasingly shapes the shortlist, but humans still finalize the decision.

For brands, this shifts marketplace optimization priorities. Success in agentic commerce depends on structured product attributes, compatibility data, explicit use cases, consistent pricing signals, and verified reviews. AI does not interpret creative storytelling the way humans do. It prioritizes structured clarity. In 2026, product data becomes the interface between brands and intelligent shopping systems.

3. Retail media becomes a profit center, not a traffic lever

Marketplace advertising is no longer a tactical add-on. In 2026, retail media matures into a core profit driver. Brands are shifting from campaign-based spending to always-on retail media strategies with clearer measurement frameworks and stricter ROI expectations. The question is no longer, “Are we advertising?” It’s, “Is this lifting incremental revenue and improving our category position?”

Budget allocation becomes strategic: Spend is increasingly divided across defensive investments that protect branded search, conquesting campaigns that capture competitor demand, and new-to-brand acquisition efforts. Each serves a different commercial objective, and measuring them under the same ROAS lens distorts performance expectations. Amazon's New-to-Brand reporting has further accelerated this shift, forcing brands to distinguish between protecting share and genuinely expanding it.

Marketplace advertising doesn’t run in isolation; it amplifies your product listing. That means performance depends on how well your listing competes inside the search results grid. Clear titles, sharp product images, strong star ratings, and visible pricing signals outperform lifestyle-heavy storytelling. On a marketplace search page, shoppers are comparing options side by side. The listing that answers questions fastest wins.

Leading brands will also be testing keywords, and scale only what improves organic rank, total category share, and contribution margin. Retail media is increasingly evaluated against long-term visibility and profitability, not short-term revenue spikes.

4. Regulation becomes product strategy, not just legal oversight

Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying across the globe with the introduction of new trade tariffs. Compliance is no longer a back-office concern. It shapes how products are presented, described, and sold.

Data transparency and AI governance are becoming operational requirements. Brands must be clear about how customer data is used and how AI-driven recommendations function. Consent, explainability, and responsible personalization are no longer optional considerations.

Sustainability claims are also under heavier inspection, particularly in the EU and UK. Vague language around “eco” or “sustainable” without substantiation carries real reputational and regulatory risk. Greenwashing scrutiny is increasing.

At the same time, marketplaces are tightening requirements around product safety, authenticity, and documentation, especially in Germany and the US. Brands must be able to verify certifications, seller legitimacy, and compliance credentials quickly and consistently.

In 2026, compliance cannot be reactive. It must be built into listing creation, pricing workflows, and marketplace onboarding from the start.

5. Cross-border shifts from expansion to execution

Cross-border ecommerce remains a major opportunity, but the growth playbook is evolving. Our latest Marketplace Shopping Behavior Report shows that while 58% of shoppers have purchased cross-border, hesitation still exists.

Confidence is conditional, not automatic. As brands continue expanding into new markets, they must invest just as heavily in executing well in the ones they already serve.

This means supporting local payment methods, offering local returns solutions, and providing transparent duties and taxes at checkout. It also means building region-specific assortment strategies and maintaining pricing governance across marketplaces to avoid visible inconsistencies.

Cross-border success in 2026 is less about growth hacks and more about operational excellence.

6. Brand protection becomes central to growth strategy

As marketplaces expand and AI-driven product discovery increases, counterfeit listings, hijacked product pages, and unauthorized resellers gain more visibility.

In 2026, brand protection moves from reactive enforcement to proactive infrastructure. Brands are investing in registry programs, serialization, traceability, and authorized reseller frameworks. Monitoring and takedown workflows are becoming more automated and integrated into daily operations rather than handled ad hoc.

Content standardization also plays a role. When product data is consistent and structured, fraudulent listings are easier to detect and remove.

The AI layer adds urgency. As intelligent systems increasingly surface product recommendations, inaccurate or duplicated listings can spread faster and appear more legitimate. Structured, authoritative data helps AI systems differentiate official listings from counterfeit or hijacked ones.

In an AI-driven discovery environment, clean data becomes brand defense.

Concluding Thoughts

As we step into 2025, ecommerce is poised for another transformative year. From the rise of conversational commerce to the growing importance of transparency, social commerce, and sustainability, the trends outlined here represent exciting opportunities for businesses to innovate and grow.

The advantage will not belong to the brands that experiment the fastest, but to those that execute the fundamentals best. Structured product data, consistent pricing, transparent policies, and operational governance are becoming strategic differentiators.

Ecommerce is entering a maturity cycle. Growth is still there, but it will be earned through better measurement, stronger infrastructure, and tighter control across marketplaces and channels. The brands that win in 2026 will not just adopt new tools. They will build systems that scale confidently across regions, platforms, and increasingly intelligent shopping environments.